Imprecise earned duration model for time evaluation of construction projects with risk considerations

Amir Mohammad Hamzeh | Seyed Meysam Mousavi | Hossein Gitinavard

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URL :   http://research.shahed.ac.ir/WSR/WebPages/Report/PaperView.aspx?PaperID=137375
Date :  2020/01/06
Publish in :    Automation in Construction

Link :  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S092658051930408X
Keywords :Earned duration management, Construction projects, Risk performance indicator, Triangular intuitionistic fuzzy sets, Uncertainty

Abstract :

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Monitoring and estimating the time performance of projects are two crucial factors which lead the companies to be prosperous. To address the issue, the most recent time-based method is earned duration management (EDM) which is used as an efficient technique. This research presents a new triangular intuitionistic fuzzy-EDM model to improve the applicability of time performance indices and to forecast under uncertain conditions. Since traditional fuzzy sets using membership degrees cannot deal with imprecise quantities in real cases, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TIFNs) solve this issue by non-membership and hesitation degrees. In this sake, a TIFN as a special type of intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs), defined on the set of real numbers, shows high capability of modeling ill-known and imprecise information in continuous domains. Besides, the importance of risks in time estimation of EDM is less considered in the literature. In this research, a new time-based risk performance indicator (TBRPI) is developed based on novel risk performance metrics (RPMs) to improve the project time performance estimating of EDM. In this respect, the significance of each RPM could increase the accuracy of the proposed approach, in which a new triangular intuitionistic fuzzy group decision method is presented for obtaining the RPMs and constituent factors (CFs)’ weights. Finally, a real case study about seawater intake basin construction project is provided to represent the applicability and feasibility of the proposed triangular intuitionistic fuzzy risk-based EDM model.