An innovative interval type-2 fuzzy approach for multi-scenario multi-project cash flow evaluation considering TODIM and critical chain with an application to energy sector

Seyed Meysam Mousavi | Seyed Ali Mirnezami | Vahid Mohagheghi

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URL :   http://research.shahed.ac.ir/WSR/WebPages/Report/PaperView.aspx?PaperID=137832
Date :  2020/06/22
Publish in :    Neural Computing and Applications

Link :  https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00521-020-05095-z
Keywords :Multi-project, Cash flow assessment, Critical chain project management, TODIM method, Trapezoidal interval type-2 fuzzy sets (TIT2FSs), Energy sector

Abstract :

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Project management has been proven to be an effective tool to manage sophisticated activities. Various techniques of project management have played an essential role for successful project implementation in different areas. Managing projects, especially in a multi-project environment, involves a complex situation because of its distinguishing feature in which a number of projects are being executed simultaneously, that is, they are followed in parallel. Therefore, applying human resources will be more effective and more idle time will be eliminated as well. More so, it can enable people to share their lessons learned from one project to another. With respect to handling a number of projects at the same time by most firms, it is sophisticated for contractors to cope with financial issues of projects, which involve different project cash inflows and outflows. Thus, taking an accurate cash flow prediction into account for projects has been changed into a crucial matter for firms, and lack of this consideration may result in the failure of projects as well. Moreover, there is a desperate need for uncertainties to be addressed thoroughly regarding their vital role for suitable project management. With these in mind, an innovative approach is proposed in this paper to anticipate the cash flow of project by considering type-2 fuzzy extension of both critical chain project management (CCM) for project scheduling and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive Multi-Criteria Decision Making) method for selecting the best scenario in a multi-project environment. Hence, type-2 fuzzy numbers are utilized in order to state uncertainties. Eventually, a real-world project in a petro-refinery firm is applied to indicate the capability of the presented approach.