A new fuzzy simulation approach for project evaluation based on concepts of risk, strategy, and group decision making with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets

A. Patoghi | Seyed Meysam Mousavi | R. Davoudabadi

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URL :   http://research.shahed.ac.ir/WSR/WebPages/Report/PaperView.aspx?PaperID=169777
Date :  2022/09/01
Publish in :    Journal of Ambient Intelligence and Humanized Computing


Keywords :Project evaluation; risk; organizational strategy; fuzzy simulation approach; group decision making; interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers

Abstract :

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One of the best indicators for measuring and evaluating the performance of an organization in terms of project selection is to examine the degree of alignment of implemented projects with organizational strategies. On the other hand, the importance of this indicator is more vital for project-based organizations. The main purpose of this study is to provide a new analytical approach that allows organizations to have an accurate evaluation of their candidate projects. In other words, the method presented in this paper is a group decision-making process that, after receiving the knowledge of experts, provides comprehensive insight and analysis in the field of evaluation, analysis, and selection of appropriate projects. Evaluations in the proposed approach are based on two indicators of risk aversion and alignment of projects with organizational strategies. Also, with the aim of strengthening the method analytically, interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF) numbers and simulation have been provided simultaneously. Meanwhile, a new approach to simulating IVIF numbers is introduced. In this method, the mutual effects of various organizational goals and project risks are evaluated by fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). In the end, the scores obtained by these two indexes for each project are integrated. Next, projects are ranked based on their final index. The last aggregation method is used for problem-solving for its advantages. The use of IVIF numbers enhances the method’s performance in dealing with uncertainty. In addition to maximum project data utilization, the use of simulation will provide more suitable outputs for decision-making regarding projects. The application of the proposed model for project evaluation is described by employing a case study and by implementing the method in a manufacturing organization. According to the results, in addition to project evaluation and ranking, the organization is analyzed in terms of the efficiency of its research and development processes, strategy formulation and needs assessment.