Shahed University

Wildcards – natural and artificial: the combination of a panel of experts and Fuzzy TOPSIS

محسن محمدی         Mohammadrahim Eivazi         جعفر سجادی

Date :  2016/12/05
Publish in :    Foresight

Keywords :

Abstract :
Purpose The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to turn qualitative ideas into quantitative ones; and apply a combination of Fuzzy TOPSIS and a panel of experts to prioritize weak signals. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors classify wildcards into three particular types which share similar character: natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). Wildcards point to unexpected and surprising events including important results that can form watershed in the development of a specific trend. In addition, the authors present a Fuzzy TOPSIS model which can be used in various cases to prioritize a number of weak signals and put them in order, so that the most important ones are likely to yield the wildcard in the future Findings

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